Evaluation of risk dilution effects in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi

Proceedings of 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021) (Internet), p.810 - 817, 2021/09

https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_477-cd

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method of effectively evaluating risks in nuclear power plants and is used in various agencies. Dynamic PRA is attracting considerable attention, as it enables realistic assessment by reducing the assumptions and engineering judgments related to time-dependent failure probability and/or human action reliability. However, it is difficult to remove all assumptions and engineering judgments. Therefore, their effects on assessment results should be understood. This study focuses on the "risk dilution effect," which arises from assumptions about uncertainty. Results showed that this effect causes a difference of about 10% to 20% in the relative change of the conditional core damage probability in the station blackout scenario. This effect should be fully considered when using dynamic PRA in critical decision-making, such as that on regulations.